AI predicts Canadian immigration trends for 2026, i.e, in 2026, Canada is expected to announce several important updates to its immigration system. These changes may affect permanent residence (PR) pathways, work permit rules, and how candidates are selected across programs.
Some changes are expected to open new opportunities, while others may tighten eligibility. To better understand what could be ahead, AI was asked to predict how Canadian immigration may evolve in 2026.
The goal was to look at many factors at once and identify possible trends for the year.
Methodology
For this blog, ChatGPT 5.2 was used in Thinking Mode.
The AI was asked certain detailed questions covering a wide range of immigration topics. It was instructed to be as specific as possible and, where relevant, to mention possible numbers or timelines, such as months when changes could happen.
It is important to note that AI tools can sometimes provide unclear, incorrect, or conflicting information. Different users may receive different answers to the same questions. Before making any major immigration decisions, information should always be confirmed through official government sources or trusted immigration professionals.
AI Claim: CRS Cut-Off Scores For Canadian Experience Class Draws Will Drop In 2026
The AI predicted that Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cut-off scores for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws will be lower in 2026 compared to 2025.
The bot explained this by pointing to two main reasons:
- Points for arranged employment have been removed.
- Immigration authorities continue to focus on selecting candidates already in Canada.
According to the AI, the highest CRS score for a CEC draw in 2026 could be around 535, likely between February and April when draw sizes may be smaller. It also suggested that the lowest score could fall to around 495 if large draws are held to clear the existing pool.
Note:
While points for job offers have been removed and in-Canada applicants are being prioritized, the predicted CRS numbers are only estimates. Many other factors can affect CRS scores, including how many people enter the Express Entry pool and how many candidates increase their scores by gaining more work experience outside Canada.
AI Claim: In-Canada Applicants Will Get More Preference Through New “In-Canada” Categories
The AI does not expect a single, broad temporary-to-permanent residence program. Instead, it predicts a gradual shift toward what it described as a “de facto TR-to-PR system.”
This may happen through:
- More frequent CEC draws
- New Express Entry categories focused on candidates with Canadian work experience, similar to the Physicians category introduced at the end of 2025
The AI based this prediction on signals from immigration authorities that suggest a focus on moving temporary residents already in Canada into permanent status.
Note:
The most recent Immigration Levels Plan already includes plans to transition up to 33,000 temporary residents to permanent status. This detail was not mentioned by the AI in its prediction.
AI Claim: Provincial Immigration Will Become More Focused And Targeted
The AI noted that the Immigration Levels Plan increased admissions through Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs). It also highlighted the addition of 5,000 extra nomination spaces for doctors across provinces and territories later in the year.
Based on this, the AI predicted that provinces will:
- Focus more on specific occupations such as healthcare, construction, and early childhood education
- Add stronger filters that favor candidates with work or study experience inside the province
Note:
In 2025, many provinces targeted specific occupations because nomination allocations were reduced. In 2026, allocations may increase due to higher admission targets, which could reduce the need for strict occupation targeting.
Most provinces require applicants to show an intention to live in the province. However, having prior in-province experience is not always required. In many cases, a valid job offer from an employer in the province is more important.
AI Claim: Some Express Entry Categories May Pause, While New Ones May Launch
Regarding category-based selection, the AI suggested that the STEM category could be paused in 2026, though not permanently removed.
The reason given was that many STEM workers already qualify through CEC or PNP streams, meaning labour needs in this area may already be met.
The AI also predicted that the Agriculture and Agri-Food category could be removed and handled instead through employer-based work permits and sector-specific pathways.
At the same time, the AI suggested two possible new categories for 2026:
- Construction / housing delivery: This category would focus on occupations directly linked to housing supply and construction, such as site supervisors and certain civil trades.
- Critical infrastructure and energy transition: This category would aim to support large national projects and fill key labour gaps in energy and infrastructure sectors.
Note:
Canada’s existing Trades category already includes many occupations related to construction. There has also been no official statement from the government about creating a category for critical infrastructure or energy transition.
It is also important to note that IRCC held consultations in 2025 on other possible categories that the AI did not mention, including Leadership, Research and Innovation, and National Security and Defence.
AI Claim: Temporary Foreign Worker Program Rules Will Tighten Further In 2026
The AI predicted that Canada will continue to restrict access to the low-wage stream of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP).
According to the AI, possible changes could include:
- Higher wage thresholds
- Expansion of areas where low-wage LMIA applications are not processed
- Continued exemptions for essential sectors and rural or remote employers
The AI suggested these changes would build on actions already taken in 2025, such as raising wage thresholds and expanding “do-not-process” rules.
It also predicted that in the first half of 2026, more census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and occupations would be added to the low-wage LMIA freeze. It further expected closer review of employers who apply for multiple LMIAs for the same role, as well as higher penalties for non-compliance.
Note:
On January 9, Canada updated its list of CMAs where low-wage LMIAs will not be processed for Q1 2026. No new regions were added, and eight were removed due to lower unemployment rates. This directly contradicts the AI’s prediction.
This update is positive for employers and workers seeking low-wage LMIAs in certain regions.
In addition, data from 2025 shows Canada is already on track to admit fewer foreign workers than planned, suggesting further restrictions may not be needed to meet government targets.
AI Claim: Physician Category Draws Will Start In February Or March 2026
The AI predicted that the first draw under the Physicians with Canadian Work Experience category would take place in February 2026, with March as a possible alternative if systems take longer to prepare.
The AI based this on IRCC’s statement that draws would begin in “early 2026” and the fact that program guidance for doctors has already been released.
Note:
While IRCC has confirmed that draws will begin in early 2026, there is no evidence supporting a specific month such as February or March.
AI Claim: Future Immigration Levels Plans Will Stay Mostly Stable
The AI predicted that future Immigration Levels Plans will keep annual PR admissions steady through 2028, with a slight increase in 2029.
It estimated the following targets:
- 2027: 380,000
- 2028: 380,000
- 2029: 395,000
The AI also predicted a goal of 12% Francophone admissions by 2029 and suggested that temporary resident numbers will remain limited unless there is a major economic shift.
Note:
These numbers are speculative. Final targets are decided by the Canadian government and can change based on economic and political factors.
AI Claim: A Smaller And Stricter Entrepreneur Pathway Will Launch
The Start-Up Visa Program was closed for new applications at the end of 2025, and the Self-Employed Persons Program remains paused.
The AI repeated the government’s statement that a new entrepreneur pilot is expected in 2026. It predicted an announcement around May or June, with applications opening in September.
The AI suggested the program would accept a limited number of applicants, possibly between 1,500 and 3,000 principal applicants, to protect program quality.
It also predicted stronger requirements, such as:
- Greater responsibility for designated organizations
- Clear job creation targets, such as hiring one or two Canadian workers within a year
The AI added that faster processing could be offered to founders already operating businesses in Canada.
Note:
The AI did not mention that some applicants are exempt from the Start-Up Visa closure until June 30, 2026.
The original Start-Up Visa Program already included accountability requirements for designated organizations. Thus, it remains unclear whether the new pilot will introduce stricter rules.
Overall, the AI’s predictions highlight possible trends but should be treated with caution. While some forecasts align with known government plans, others conflict with recent updates or remain unsupported. Official announcements in 2026 will provide clearer direction for Canada’s immigration system.
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